Population of Europe From a Hungarian Perspective

Population of Europe From a Hungarian Perspective Presented by: Dr. Pár Date: 8 October 2023 Structure Of The Presentation - 1. Factors influencing population trends - 2. Beyond the fertility, mortality and migration - 3. Population trends worldwide - 4. Snapshot of Europe's population - 5. Hungary's demographic profile - 6. Demography asks – family policy answers - 7. Summary - 8. Conclusion Factors influencing population trends - 1. Fertility (births) - fertility rate - 2. Mortality (death) - mortality rate - 3. Migration - net migration - Population Base + Births – Deaths + Migration = Population Estimate Population trends worldwide - - Demographic Transitions Theory - - „Demographic Winter" (Dumont, 1986) - - European continent's population: 745 million, representing 10% of the world's population (UN, 2022) - Europe's fertility rate: • 2.77 (1950) • 1.53 (2021) • → none of the EU Member States currently reaches the 2.1 level (replacement level) • → population projections indicate that population trends will show a long term continued downward trajectory Hungary's demographic profile - "Hungary shall protect the institution of marriage as the union of one man and one woman established by voluntary decision, and he family as the basis of the survival of the nation. Family ties shall be based on marriage or the relationship between parents and children. The mother shall be a woman; the father shall be a man." - Fundamental Law of Hungary • Population decline since 1981: nearly 1 million less inhabitants (until 2021) • By 2011, the desire to have children has fallen to a historic low: the fertility rate was 1.23, the lowest in the European Union at the time. Demography asks - family policy answers - Specificities of Hungarian family policy - Addressing demographic challenges by supporting Hungarian families, not illegal migration • Constantly strengthening the financial situation of families • Linking family benefits to employment • Family support helps all parents raising children • The state supports responsible parenting • Family tax allowance increasing depending on the number of minors - fair taxation of parents raising children • Family benefits available after the 12th week of the pregnancy already • Elevated social recognition of motherhood and childrearing • Real options for parents (e.g. mothers' freedom of choice: staying at home up to 3 years, or return to employment) • Horizontal alliance working for families - state, churches, local governments, media, civil society, academia, economic actors... The relationship between GDP-proportionate expenditure on family benefits and fertility - In the 2024 Hungarian budget, family support has been increased 3.5 times compared to 2010, which is the highest in Europe: 3.9% of GDP. Most family support is linked to employment, with a wide range of family benefits available to those having and raising children. As a result, Hungary has seen a simultaneous increase in the propensity to have children and to work. Marriage, the prelude to having children (Jones, 2007, pp. 453-478.; Billari, 2008, pp. 2-18.; Spéder and Kapitány, 2009, pp. 503-523.; Pári and Balog, 2021 pp. 147-167.) - The link between marriage and fertility has long been taken for granted by demographers (Stone and James 2022). - Fertility studies show: stable relationships - (marriages), children wished for are born and more children are born, although they approach the issue from the other side: in unstable relationships, children wished for are not being born and fewer children are born due to procrastination. - In higher-income countries: • positive relationship between TFR and marriage is less clear, • majority of children are born out of wedlock. Changes of the Total Fertility Rate in the EU 27 countries between 2010-2020 (Eurostat) - The total fertility rate is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 in all EU countries, according to Eurostat. - In 2010, the indicator was close to or above 2 in Ireland, France and Sweden, but has since started to decline. - In Hungary the TFR increased from 1.25 to 1.59 from 2010 to 2020, this was the highest in the EU27 countries. Fertility (backward estimation) - If the 2011 fertility rate of 1.23 had remained in the last decade, a total of 160,000 fewer children would have been born. - Demographic aspects: fewer women of - childbearing age having more children since 2011 - The age-pyramid showed that the success of Hungarian family policy over the past decade has been to halt the decline in childbearing (stable at around 90,000) Summary - Europe, and the European Union, is undergoing a major demographic transformation shape the continent's future in social, cultural, economic and competitive terms. - Europe's demographic weight in the world's population: less than 10%. - In none of the European countries do fertility rates reach 2.1, the level needed for replacement level. - Unfortunately the birth rate and the number of marriages, which are considered to be a prelude to childbearing, are on the decline. - Exception: Hungary, which has seen the The largest increase in childbearing and marriage rates in the European Union between 2010 and 2022. → Hungary has moved from demographic collapse through its own efforts and active family policies. Conclusion - A) The fertility gap between planned and actually born children is observed in European countries - B) Population decline (natural decrease) has started since 2012 - C) Ageing is a demographic fact - D) Paul Demény: Europe's demographic problem cannot be solved by immigration. • → immigration can increase fertility in the short to medium term • → it can and does transform the cultural and ethnic composition of the host society (if a significant number of immigrants arrive in the country, relative to the size of the host society.) - E) Europe's population is expected to decline in the coming decades (UN, Eurostat, OECD). • → various policies try to "cure" this specific demographic "disease". • → Since 2010, Hungary has been pursuing a pro-natalist and pro-family policy "national medicine" - I. measures focusing on the family as the most important community, - II. marriage as the most stable form of relationship - III. respect for tradition and life